On each fixture in the SignalRates page you will see two player-bet sections: Value Bets and Anchor Legs. They answer different questions. Value Bets look for a price the bookmaker has got wrong. Anchor Legs ignore the price entirely and ask a simpler question: which player lines are the most likely to land?
What Anchor Legs are
Anchor Legs are a per-fixture shortlist of the player-stat lines the model rates as the highest-probability of the day — a striker to have 1+ shots, a midfielder to make 1+ tackles, and so on. They are ranked purely by how likely they are to come in, after two corrections that matter:
1. Calibration. The model's raw probabilities are corrected against what actually happened historically. Some stats are systematically over-confident and get pulled down; others are under-rated and get lifted up. The correction is built from real hit rates, so a "78%" leg means legs like it have landed roughly 78% of the time.
2. Matchup (Elo) tilt. The attacking/defending Elo gap nudges shot-based lines — a sharp attacker facing a weak defence gets a small lift.
The result is a ranked list; the top few are surfaced as the fixture's Anchor Legs. The same player can appear more than once (a striker might anchor both a shots line and a fouls-drawn line).
Anchor Legs vs Value Bets
These are two genuine lenses, not duplicates:
- Value Bets need a bookmaker price to measure edge against, so they only cover priced markets.
- Anchor Legs are about likelihood, so they can include stats the bookmaker doesn't even price — like tackles and fouls drawn. Those can never appear as Value Bets, which is exactly why the two sections complement each other.
Which stats they cover
Anchor Legs are drawn from the stats that are most predictable, not the flashiest:
- Tackles and fouls drawn — high-volume, well-behaved, and unpriced.
- Fouls committed and shots.
- Shots on target is deliberately excluded — it is the most over-confident stat in testing, so we leave it out rather than flatter the pack.
Confirmed XI vs Provisional
A leg is only useful if the player actually starts, so every pack is gated to likely starters and carries a badge:
- CONFIRMED XI — the official lineup has been published (typically 30–75 minutes before kick-off) and the legs are filtered to players confirmed to start.
- PROVISIONAL — lineups aren't out yet, so the pack uses recent minutes to estimate who starts. Treat these as a preview; they firm up once the XI lands.
Legs are also gated on sample size, so a player needs a reasonable number of recent games on record before they can anchor a pack.
The 1+ and 2+ boards
You will see two related boards. The 1+ board is the calibrated pack described above — most likely to record at least one of the stat. The 2+ board asks who is most likely to hit the line twice or more. Because reaching two is volume-driven, the 2+ board tends to feature high-usage specialists (a busy tackler, a shot-heavy forward) rather than the same names as the 1+ pack.
How to read the table
Each row shows the player, the selection, a Chance % (the model's final, calibrated probability the leg lands), games of recent data, and — once the match finishes — a result pill: HIT, MISS, SUB (came off the bench), DNS (did not start) or VOID. Selections are frozen before kick-off, so the results you see are the real pre-match picks settled honestly — never re-picked with hindsight.
What to expect
Across a full slate, individual Anchor Legs land at roughly 76–80%, and about two-thirds of packs land four or more of their five legs. That is a strong strike rate for a "most likely to land" product — but note two things:
- It is a likelihood product, not a value product. A high chance of landing does not by itself mean the bookmaker's price is generous. If you're betting these, still check the odds.
- No leg is a certainty. We call them Anchor Legs, not "bankers" — nothing here is a sure thing, and short-run variance is normal.
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Next reads
- Understanding Signal Ratings: what the ★ match signals mean.
- Attacking & Defending Elo: the matchup ratings that tilt the shot-based legs.
- Player Stats: A Beginner's Guide: the raw numbers behind the selections.
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