BetSignals shows a win percentage for each outcome of a match. That percentage is the model's confidence in the result: how likely it thinks each of home, draw and away is. This guide explains how to read it, and why confidence in a result is not the same as value in a bet.
Note: this guide used to describe confidence as a star level. It no longer does. The stars now measure value. Confidence in the outcome is expressed by the win percentage, and that is what this guide covers.
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What confidence means
Confidence is simply how likely the model thinks an outcome is. Every match produces three probabilities, home, draw and away, that add up to 100%. A home side at 60% is a more confident call than one at 42%. The outcome with the highest percentage is the model's pick.
Higher confidence means the result is more likely to happen. It is a statement about the match, and it is exactly the number you want when you are choosing accumulator legs: likely outcomes, ranked by probability.
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Confidence is not value
This is the distinction that catches most people out.
A high percentage tells you a result is likely. It says nothing about whether the odds are worth taking. A home side at 70% is very likely to win, but if the bookmaker already prices that at 1.42, you are being paid roughly what the chance is worth, and there is no edge in backing it.
The reverse is true as well. An away side at 45%, a modest confidence, can be trading at odds that imply a smaller chance than that. That is where the value is, even though the confidence is not high.
So use the two numbers for two jobs. Confidence, the percentage, tells you what is likely. The star rating tells you what is worth backing.
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When you see a cross
A cross (✕) means there is no selection. It happens in two cases:
- The two independent models disagree on the most likely outcome. The match is genuinely split, so no pick is made.
- There is not enough recent data to produce a reliable estimate, for example a newly promoted side or a squad mid-rebuild.
Either way, a cross is information. When the models disagree, look at the underlying probabilities: if they are close but pointing different ways, the match is a genuine toss-up.
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How data sits behind the number
A percentage is only as good as the data behind it. A fixture between two settled teams with plenty of recent matches produces a more reliable estimate than one involving a promoted side or a team mid-season rebuild. BetSignals only issues a signal when there is enough recent data, which is why thin fixtures show a cross rather than a shaky number.
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Practical applications
- Building accumulators. Rank outcomes by the percentage and stack the likely ones. Smarter accumulators are built from high-confidence legs.
- Checking value. A confident pick is only a good bet if the odds are longer than the model's fair price. Read the star rating for that.
- Reading a cross as data. No pick can still tell you the match is finely balanced.
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Next reads
- How Percentages and Star Ratings Work: the two numbers, side by side
- How BetSignals Star Ratings Are Calculated: how value becomes stars
- What is a Value Bet?: why confidence alone is not enough
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